GEARCS2 Case Opening Simulator & ROI Calculator
Experience authentic Counter-Strike 2 case unboxing with real Valve drop rates, precise float values, and realistic wheel physics. Test your luck across 16 official cases without burning real money.
Kilowatt Case
Contains 17 skins + Rare Special Items (Knives / Gloves)
Session Analytics & Return To Player
Live Expenditure vs True Unboxed Inventory ValueUnboxed Inventory Log
Click any skin to inspect. Filter by official CS2 rarity tier.No cases opened yet. Pick a case above and open your first one!
Official Valve Drop Probabilities & Math Breakdown
Every case in Counter-Strike 2 follows this fixed mathematical distribution published under Chinese disclosure law.
| Rarity Tier | Color | True Probability | Exact Odds | Average Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | Blue | 79.92% | ~4 in 5 cases | $0.10 – $0.40 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | ~1 in 6.25 cases | $1.00 – $3.50 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.20% | ~1 in 31.25 cases | $8.00 – $35.00 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | ~1 in 156.25 cases | $40.00 – $250.00 |
| Special Rare (Knives / Gloves) | Gold ★ | 0.256% | ~1 in 384.6 cases | $150.00 – $1,200.00+ |
| StatTrak™ Variant | Orange ST | 10.00% | 1 in 10 skins | +50% to +150% Value |
CS2 Case Unboxing FAQ
What are the official CS2 case odds for knives and red skins?
Under Chinese gambling disclosure regulations (Perfect World), Valve revealed the exact probabilities for CS:GO and CS2 weapon cases: Mil-Spec (Blue) is 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) is 15.98%, Classified (Pink) is 3.20%, Covert (Red) is 0.64%, and Special Rare Items (Gold Knives or Gloves) have a 0.256% chance (approximately 1 in 384.6 cases). Any unboxed skin has an exact 10% chance to be StatTrak.
How does skin float work when unboxing in CS2?
Each weapon skin has a hard-coded minimum and maximum float range (for example, the AK-47 Inheritance ranges from 0.00 to 0.80). When opened, a random number is drawn uniformly across that range. Wear brackets are Factory New (0.00-0.07), Minimal Wear (0.07-0.15), Field-Tested (0.15-0.38), Well-Worn (0.38-0.45), and Battle-Scarred (0.45-1.00). Because Field-Tested and Battle-Scarred cover the widest numerical spans, they drop significantly more often than Factory New.
What is the average Return to Player (RTP) of opening CS2 cases?
The average long-term return on CS2 cases sits between 35% and 48% depending on the specific case and key price ($2.49). This represents a house edge of over 50%, making case opening mathematically worse than almost any regulated casino table game. Our simulator demonstrates this reality by tracking cumulative expenditure against actual unboxed value in real time.
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